Waitlisted at the UCs? Breaking Down UC Admissions Data: What Students Need to Know.

The University of California (UC) system continues to be one of the most competitive public university systems in the nation, with hundreds of thousands of applicants (249,824 to be exact!) vying for limited spots each year. The 2025 admissions cycle was no exception, with some campuses seeing increased selectivity, while others expanded their waitlist admissions. For students in the Class of 2025 and beyond, understanding this data is essential for navigating this seemingly complicated process. Let’s dive into the key insights from this year’s data and what it might mean for your admissions journey.

The most applied to school in the country

A Record-Breaking Number of Applications

The Fall 2025 admissions cycle has already seen a massive surge in interest, with over 249,000 applications submitted across all nine UC undergraduate campuses. This includes more than 205,000 first-year applicants, and the numbers are strong across all categories: California residents, out-of-state domestic students, and international applicants. Here are some highlights from the preliminary data:

Surprisingly, after years of surging applications, the most popular UCs saw very little change in applicant numbers.

• UCLA leads with 173,297 total applications, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the 2024 admissions cycle.

• UC San Diego follows closely with 160,150 applications - a 2% increase from the Fall 2024 cycle.

• UC Irvine received 149,650, while UC Berkeley saw 150,109 - which represented small increases from last year's applicant pool.

• Riverside and Merced, the black sheep of the UCs, broke 82,000 and 50,000 applications respectively this cycle - which is a nearly 50% increase in applications!
  

Here’s a breakdown of the Fall 2025 first-year application summary:

Campus	Total Applications	First-Year Total	CA Residents	Domestic US	International
UC Systemwide	249,824	205,158	130,707	42,336	32,115
Berkeley	150,109	126,796	72,646	30,130	24,020
Davis	120,131	102,958	68,909	13,149	20,900
Irvine	149,650	124,214	86,224	16,344	21,646
UCLA	173,297	145,058	89,324	31,534	24,200
Merced	51,745	48,049	41,761	1,432	4,856
Riverside	82,904	70,578	61,259	2,956	6,363
San Diego	160,150	136,728	87,549	24,891	24,288
Santa Barbara	128,983	110,165	74,639	16,835	18,691
Santa Cruz	77,773	66,178	52,562	6,922	6,694

This data reinforces the scale and diversity of the UC applicant pool and alludes to the large impersonal nature of the admissions process. As we reach the largest graduating class for the foreseeable future, we’re also witnessing a plateau in application numbers at the more selective UCs. At the same time, savvy applicants are casting a wider net, leading to a surge in applications to the less selective UC campuses.

The Role of the Waitlist

Given the exorbitant number of applications, UC campuses have had to prioritize enrollment management—the strategic process of filling a class without exceeding capacity. Since the p*ndemic in 2020, student decision-making has shifted. More students are opting to stay closer to home, and campuses have seen unpredictable yield rates. As a result, several UCs have struggled with over enrollment, which leads to overcrowded classes and housing issues—think dorm rooms meant for two students becoming triples, and difficulties registering for classes.

To avoid these challenges, UCs are now relying more heavily on enrollment management tools like deferrals and waitlists to manage class sizes precisely.

 If you’re reading this article, you’re probably one of the students who’ve found themselves on the waitlist. So here’s some interesting info about the waitlist itself. Please note that this is based on previous years’ data as we don’t have enough information about 2025 as of yet.

For students who were not initially admitted, the waitlist played a significant role in the admissions process. Some key takeaways:

• UC San Diego had the highest number of waitlist offers at 28,235, with 4,600 students eventually admitted from the waitlist.

• UC Irvine, despite its low initial admit rate, had a 75.1% waitlist acceptance rate—meaning a strong chance for students who opted in.

• UC Santa Barbara had one of the highest waitlist admission rates at 82.2%, offering hope for students who remained patient.

• UC Berkeley, in contrast, only admitted 26 students from its waitlist, making it one of the least generous with waitlist acceptances.

These stats underscore the idea that there is quite a variety of movement on the waitlists that often correlate inversely with the popularity of the school

Waitlist Admit Rate Trends (2018–2024) and 2025 Predictions

Year	Berkeley	Davis	Irvine	UCLA	Riverside	UCSD	UCSB	UCSC
2018	37%	1%	2%	n/a	17%	9%	0%	2%
2019	28%	56%	19%	13%	34%	35%	10%	62%
2020	33%	79%	24%	19%	68%	37%	96%	86%
2021	5%	n/a	15%	2%	80%	0%	21%	53%
2022	1%	19%	87%	3%	40%	7%	27%	13%
2023	25%	41%	86%	12%	30%	14%	57%	88%
2024	0%	45%	75%	13%	72%	24%	82%	36%
Predicted 2025	9%*	40%*	65%*	10%*	60%*	20%	40%*	55%*

This table illustrates how waitlist admit rates have fluctuated over time and provides insight into what the Class of 2025 might expect if placed on a waitlist. While some campuses consistently admit a large portion of their waitlist (like UCSB and UCSC), others such as UC Berkeley tend to admit very few. We've gone ahead and compiled past data to approximate what percentage of students may be accepted off the waitlist based the past few years' data. Our predictions are based partially on historical trends, but also partially on public perception. A few notes on the data we've compiled:

• UC Merced does not use waitlists.

• 2022 was the first post-COVID year which means the data is a bit of an outlier

• 2025 data is predicted based on past years' information.

Berkeley and LA are predicted to have low waitlist movement due to their high yield rates.

How the UC Waitlist Works: Algorithms and Institutional Priorities

It’s important to understand that the waitlist process at UC campuses isn’t random or based solely on who is “next in line.” Instead, it’s largely driven by algorithms and institutional priorities. Here’s how that plays out:

• Major-specific needs: If fewer biology majors enroll than expected, the university may go to the waitlist looking specifically for students who applied as biology majors.

• High school representation: If an unusually low number of students from a particular high school accept offers, the algorithm may pull from that same high school to maintain regional balance.

• Demographic and geographic diversity: Campuses aim to create a well-rounded class that reflects the diversity of California. This includes considerations such as first-generation status, socioeconomic background, and geographic distribution.

• Institutional priorities: Factors like intended major, out-of-state vs. in-state status, and even ability to pay may influence who is admitted off the waitlist.
  

These campuses are large and complex, and their enrollment models are built on data-driven systems designed to achieve both fairness and balance. That’s why trying to predict what will happen—or taking waitlist results personally—can be emotionally draining and not an efficient use of your energy.

There are quite many apt analogies I could use, but let's use a job application analogy. If a potential employer tells you that you're on the short list of candidates and that they'll make a decision within a few weeks, realistically there is nothing you can do. Sure, you could try to bring donuts to the office, or send them a new letter of recommendation, but will that really change their mind?

Should You Submit a Letter of Continued Interest (LOCI)?

A common question from waitlisted students is whether they should submit a Letter of Continued Interest (LOCI). However, unlike some private universities, none of the UC campuses accept LOCIs from waitlisted students. The only exception is UCLA, which allows waitlisted students to submit a waitlist statement.

Why UCs Don’t Accept LOCIs:

• Unsolicited documents won’t be considered – Any additional materials sent to the UC admissions offices are likely to be ignored or discarded.

• Strict waitlist policies – UC campuses focus primarily on the original application and the waitlist opt-in form when making their final decisions.

• Admissions transparency – UCs clearly state in their waitlist FAQs that no additional letters or materials will influence their decisions.
  

What You Should Do Instead:

• Decide if you want to opt in – All UCs have set the waitlist opt-in deadline as April 15.

• Follow the UC waitlist instructions carefully – If your campus allows a waitlist opt-in statement, submit it through the official portal.

• Review waitlist FAQs – Each UC has different policies, so check the guidelines for your specific school.

• Secure a backup plan – Since UC waitlist admissions are unpredictable, make sure you have committed to another school by the May 1st deadline.

  
  

  

  
  

When Should I Expect to Hear Anything?

Based on historical trends, the University of California schools typically begin releasing waitlist decisions shortly after May 1—the deadline for admitted students to submit their Statement of Intent to Register (SIR). Once the UCs know how many spots remain unfilled, they begin notifying students on the waitlist in waves.

In each round, some students are offered admission for the coming academic year. However, not all students who receive an offer will accept, so campuses continue to admit more students in subsequent batches until they’ve filled their incoming class. Based on information previous years, most admissions offers were issued - at latest - by June 30.

Key Takeaways for the Class of 2025

• Finish strong – Your final grades matter. Keep your foot on the gas. If you do get off the waitlist, these schools will expect you to report strong final grades that match your original application.

• Look ahead – The waitlist is not a guarantee. Be excited about the schools that said yes and start exploring the amazing resources and programs they have to offer.

• Don’t try to game the system – The algorithm is unpredictable and built around institutional goals. There isn’t really anything that one person can do to change the behavior of the system no matter how broken they think it is.

• Celebrate your path – College is what you make of it. A school’s name doesn’t define your success.

• Consider transfer options – For those students who have ample reason for needing to go to a UC, you may wish to consider the transfer option, as, statistically speaking, it can be much more favorable.

Key Takeaways for the Class of 2026 and Beyond

• The competition is fierce – If you’re aiming for UC Berkeley or UCLA, prepare for single-digit admit rates. Strengthen your application with strong PIQs, extracurriculars, and grades and test scores that are in the top 9% of your school.

• Apply broadly – Don’t just focus on one set of schools. There are thousands of colleges out there with incredible programs—explore your options widely.

Final Thoughts

The UC admissions process is competitive, but knowledge is power. Whether you’re aiming for a top-tier UC or exploring other paths, make thoughtful decisions, manage your expectations, and stay optimistic.

Have questions or experiences to share? Drop a comment below—we’d love to hear from you.